PIM's work on analyzing food systems futures through foresight modeling and other approaches falls under PIM's Flagship 1 on technological innovation and sustainable intensification. The PIM-supported foresight modeling work has at its core the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) developed by IFPRI. This work, undertaken in collaboration with all CGIAR centers and many external partners, assesses alternative scenarios of future climates, demographics, and other drivers to explore potential challenges and opportunities related to agricultural production, food demand, trade, diets, hunger, and natural resources. Read more about the achievements of the foresight team.
Here are some of the key 2019 publications (journal articles) related to foresight work supported by PIM:
Agus, Fahmuddin; Andrade, José F.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Wiebe, Keith D.; Grassini, Patricio; et al. 2019. Yield gaps in intensive rice-maize cropping sequences in the humid tropics of Indonesia. Field Crops Research 237(May 2019): 12-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2019.04.006
Arndt, Channing; Chinowsky, Paul; Fant, Charles; Paltsev, Sergey; Schlosser, Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn; and Thurlow, James. Climate change and developing country growth: The cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. Climatic Change 154(3-4): 335–349. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02428-3
Arndt, Channing; Henley, Giles; and Hartley, Faaiqa. 2019. Bioenergy in Southern Africa: An opportunity for regional integration? Development Southern Africa 36(2): 145-154. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2018.1447363
Beach, Robert H.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Crimmins, Allison; Cenacchi, Nicola; Cole, Jefferson; et al. 2019. Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study. Lancet Planetary Health 3(7): e307-e317. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30094-4
Brooks, Karen; and Place, Frank M. 2019. Global food systems: Can foresight learn from hindsight? Global Food Security 20(March 2019): 66-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2018.12.004
De Pinto, Alessandro; Smith, Vincent H.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2019. The role of risk in the context of climate change, land use choices and crop production: Evidence from Zambia. Climate Research 79(1): 39-53. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01581
Ditzler, Lenora; Komarek, Adam M.; Chiang, Tsai-Wei; Alvarez, Stéphanie; Chatterjee, Shantonu Abe; Timler, Carl; et al. 2019. A model to examine farm household trade-offs and synergies with an application to smallholders in Vietnam. Agricultural Systems 173(July 2019): 49-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.02.008
Enahoro, Dolapo; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Mul, Marloes; Rich, Karl M.; Robinson, Timothy P.; Thornton, Philip; and Staal, Steven S. 2019. Supporting sustainable expansion of livestock production in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Scenario analysis of investment options. Global Food Security 20(March 2019): 114-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.01.001
Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Alene, Arega; Kamara, Alpha; Wiebe, Keith D.; Manyong, Victor M.; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; and Mkandawire, Petros. 2019. Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa. Food and Energy Security 8(4): e00172. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.172
Hinz, Roman; Sulser, Timothy B.; Huefner, R.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Dunston, Shahnila; Ringler, Claudia; et al. 2020. Agricultural development and land‐use change in India: A scenario analysis of trade‐offs between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Earth's Future 8(2): e2019EF001287. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001287
Komarek, Adam M.; and Msangi, Siwa. 2019. Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi. Agricultural Economics 50(5): 615-628. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12513
Komarek, Adam M.; De Pinto, Alessandro; and Smith, Vincent H. 2020. A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know. Agricultural Systems 178(February 2020): 102738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102738
Komarek, Adam M.; Thurlow, James; Koo, Jawoo; and De Pinto, Alessandro. Economywide effects of climate‐smart agriculture in Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics 50(6): 765-778. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12523
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Bogard, Jessica R.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Dunston, Shahnila; Herrero, Mario; and Wiebe, Keith D. 2019. Gaps between fruit and vegetable production, demand, and recommended consumption at global and national levels: an integrated modelling study. Lancet Planetary Health 3(7): e318-e329. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30095-6
Petsakos, Athanasios; Prager, Steven D.; Gonzalez, Carlos Eduardo; Gama, Arthur Chibwana; Sulser, Timothy B.; et al. 2019. Understanding the consequences of changes in the production frontiers for roots, tubers and bananas. Global Food Security 20(March 2019): 180-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2018.12.005
Stehfest, Elke; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Valin, Hugo; Havlik, Petr; Popp, Alexander; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Wiebe, Keith D.; et al. 2019. Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications 10: 2166. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w
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