Flagship 1 – Technological Innovation and Sustainable Intensification: April – June 2017 updates

Cluster 1.1: Foresight Modeling

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team members gathered for an extended team meeting on May 15-19 at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Philippines.

The GFSF’s report Quantitative Foresight Modeling to Inform the CGIAR Research Portfolio released in April seeks to help CGIAR as well as other donors and decision makers to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs. Read more>>

Mark Rosegrant, Flagship 1 leader, presented at the Partners Meeting "Coping with Water Scarcity in Agriculture: A Global Framework for Action in a Changing Climate" on April 19-20 at FAO, Rome, Italy.

Keith Wiebe, co-leader of Cluster 1.1, participated in “The World in 2050: Pathways toward sustainable future” annual meeting held in Laxenburg, Austria on April 3-5. He also attended the proposal planning meeting of the CGIAR Research Program Grains Legumes & Dryland Cereals on June 8-9 in Dubai to discuss possible foresight contributions to the program’s strategy.

Tim Sulser made a presentation Supply, demand, and nutritional need for fruits and vegetables at the conference Aligning the Food System to Meet Dietary Needs: Fruits and Vegetables hosted by the UC-Davis World Food Center on June 2-3.

Daniel Mason-D’Croz participated in the AgMIP-IIASA International Workshop: Rapid Assessment of Agriculture in a +1.5°C World held on June 12-14 at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

Cluster 1.2: Science Policy and Innovation Systems for Sustainable Intensification

The Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators program (ASTI) released a Comprehensive Overview of Investments and Human Resource Capacity in African Agricultural Research. The report reveals that agricultural research investments in the region are growing slower than spending on other agricultural areas, such as farm support, subsidies, and irrigation. The full report, datasets, country findings, and online tools can be found on the ASTI website.

ASTI recently launched ASTI Connect, an exclusive online platform for its national partners. This platform offers ASTI focal points access to agency-level data and an online system for submitting survey results, as well as a collection of capacity-building videos and resources. It also features a section that allows users to ask questions, share news, and post stories about the use and impact of the ASTI data.

David Spielman, сo-leader of Cluster 1.2, participated in the strategic Integrated Seed Sector Development (ISSD) Africa meeting organized by Wageningen University & Research in Amsterdam on April 24-25. Later he gave a presentation at a KU Lueven seminar in Brussels on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand in rural Bangladesh.(See related paper by Hill et al below)

Selected publications

Beintema, Nienke; and Stads, Gert-Jan. 2017. A comprehensive overview of investments and human resource capacity in African agricultural research. ASTI Synthesis Report. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/131191

Beintema, Nienke M. 2017. An assessment of the gender gap in African agricultural research capacities. Agri-Gender 2(1): 1-13. https://doi.org/10.19268/JGAFS.212017.

Brown, Molly E.; Carr, Edward R.; Grace, Kathryn L.; Wiebe, Keith; Funk, Christopher C.; Attavanich, Witsanu; Backlund, Peter; and Buja, Lawrence. Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change? Food Policy Volume 68, April 2017, pages 154–159 (published online February 2017). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.02.004

Charyulu, D.Kumara; Shyam, D. Moses; Bantilan, Cynthia; Borikar, S.T.; Gupta, S.K.; and Rai K.N. 2017. Pearl millet technology adoption and impact study in Maharashtra. Research Report 71: http://oar.icrisat.org/9993/1/Research%20Report%20No%2071%20-%20Pearl%20Millet%20Technology%20Adoption.pdf

Ghimiray, M.; Vernooy, R. (2017) The importance and challenges of crop germplasm interdependence: the case of Bhutan. Food Security 9(2), p. 301–310. ISSN: 1876-4517; http://hdl.handle.net/10568/80802

Gotor, E.; Bellon, A.; Polar, V.; Caracciolo, F. (2017) Assessing the benefits of Andean crop diversity on farmers’ livelihood: insights from a development programme in Bolivia and Peru. Journal of International Development, Online first paper (O1 Feb 2017) ISSN: 0954-1748; http://hdl.handle.net/10568/81239.

Henriksson, P. J. G., Chadag, V. M., Tran, N., Chan, C. Y., Rodriguez, U. P., Mateos, L. D., Utomo, N. B. P., Hall, S., Phillips, M. J. 2017. Indonesian aquaculture futures – Evaluating environmental and socioeconomic potentials and limitations. Journal of Cleaner Production. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.06.133

Herpers, S.; Vodouhe, R.; Halewood, M.; De Jonge, B. (2017) The support for farmer-led seed systems in African seed laws. ISSD synthesis report 2017, 16 p.; http://hdl.handle.net/10568/81545

Hill, Ruth Vargas; Kumar, Neha; Magnan, Nicholas; Makhija, Simrin; de Nicola, Francesca; Spielman, David J.; Ward, Patrick S. 2017. Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1630. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/131129 (PIM and CCAFS)

Kimaiyo, Joan; Kiptot, Evelyne; Mwambi, Mercy; Kugonza, Jane; and Franzel, Steven. 2017. The effectiveness of the volunteer farmer trainer approach vis-à-vis other information sources in dissemination of livestock feed technologies in Uganda. ICRAF Working Paper 258: http://www.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/Publications/PDFS/WP17104.pdf

Komarek, Adam M.; Drogue, Sophie; Chenoune, Roza; Hawkins, James; Msangi, Siwa; Belhouchette, Hatem; and Flichman, Guillermo. 2017. Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi. Agricultural Systems 154(June 2017): 168-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.016

Makoi, Joachim H.J.R.; van Ittersum, Martin K.; and Wiebe, Keith D. 2017. Can Tanzania feed itself by 2050?: Estimating cereal self-sufficiency to 2050. Research Summary. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/131183

Mwema, Catherine; Orr, Alastair; Namazi, Stella; and Ongora, Dennis. Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement for Sorghum & Millets (HOPE): Baseline Survey, Uganda. Socioeconomics Discussion Paper 41: http://oar.icrisat.org/10006/1/Series%20Paper%20Number%2041.pdf

Notaro, V.; Padulosi, S.; Galluzzi, G.; King, I.O. (2017) A policy analysis to promote conservation and use of small millet underutilized species in India. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, Online first paper (05JUN17). ISSN: 1473-5903; http://hdl.handle.net/10568/81473.

Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Cenacchi, Nicola; Nin-Pratt, Alejandro; Dunston, Shahnila; Zhu, Tingju; Ringler, Claudia; Wiebe, Keith D.; Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk; Xie, Hua; Kwon, Ho-Young; Johnson, Timothy; Thomas, Timothy S.; Wimmer, Florian; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Nelson, Gerald C.; and Willaarts, Barbara 2017. Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio. Project Report for USAID. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/131144

Spielman, David J.; Zaidi, Fatima; Zambrano, Patricia; Khan, Asif Ali; Ali, Shaukat; Cheema, Masooma Naseer; Nazli, Hina; Khan, Sohail Ahmad; Iqbal, Arshad; Zia, Muhammad Amir; and Ali, Ghulam Muhammad. 2017. What are farmers really planting? Measuring the presence and effectiveness of Bt cotton in Pakistan. PLoS ONE 12(5): e0176592. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0176592

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith D.; Godfray, Charles; Rayner, Mike; and Scarborough, Peter. 2017. Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: a modelling study on optimal tax levels and health and climate-change co-benefits. Global Trade Analysis Project Resource 5407: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=5407

Tesfaye, Kindie; Zaidi, P.H.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Boeber, Christian; Rahut, Dil Bahadur; Getaneh, Fite; Seetharam, K.; Erenstein, Olaf; and Stirling, Claire. Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Article in press. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1931-6

Tran, N., Rodriguez, U. P., Chan, C. Y., Phillips, M. J., Mohan, C. V., Henriksson, P. J. G., Koeshendrajana, S., Suri, S., Hall, S. (2017). Indonesian Aquaculture Futures. Part 1: An analysis of fish supply and demand in Indonesia to 2030 and role of aquaculture using the AsiaFish Model. Marine Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.02.002

Wang, Guiling; Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy; and Ji, Zhenming. Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 1. Model description and an equilibrium application over West Africa. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Article in press. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000712

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