At last week’s international conference on Integrated Systems Research for Sustainable Intensification in Smallholder Agriculture, Dolapo Enahoro, agricultural economist and member of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight team from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), made a presentation on foresight modeling to guide sustainable intensification of smallholder systems.
Concerns about the future of a global food and agricultural economy under threat from economic, socio-political and climate-related shocks has triggered renewed interest in the use of integrated foresight analyses to address questions of food supply and availability. With support from the CGIAR research program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and other donors, much attention is being paid to the development of tools and methodologies for assessing biophysical and economic dimensions and long-term prospects for global agricultural production and food security.
PIM’s foresight modeling work (under research Flagship 1) analyzes alternative future scenarios and policy options to explore how new agricultural technologies and practices can best help reduce poverty and hunger while protecting natural resources. Twelve of the CGIAR’s 15 Centers are currently participating in this work, together with partners from outside CGIAR. The research is realized through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Program (GFSF) facilitated by IFPRI and supported by PIM, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).
This blog's intro is based on the original publication "Foresight modeling to guide sustainable intensification of smallholder systems" by Peter Ballantyne (ILRI).