Featured 2016 publications: Foresight modeling

ISI Journal Articles

Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Robertson, R.; Chung, U.; Adam, M.; Abdalla, O.; Payne, T.; Reynolds, M.; Sonder, K.; Shiferaw, B.; and Nelson, G. 2017. Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYT mega-environment specific cultivars. Field Crops Research 202 (2017): 122–135. First published online 4 August 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010


Godfray, H. Charles; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; and Robinson, Sherman. 2016. Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 371(1709). http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0467


Islam, Shahnila; Cenacchi, Nicola; Sulser, Timothy B.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Hareau, Guy; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Robertson, Richard D.; Robinson, Sherman; and Wiebe, Keith D. 2016. Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security. Global Food Security 10(September 2016): 63-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.08.003


Kadiyala, M.D.M.; Kumara Charyulu, D.; Nedumaran, S.; Moses Shyam, D.; Gumma, M.K.; and Bantilan, M.C.S. 2016. Agronomic management options for sustaining chickpea yield under climate change scenario. Journal of Agrometeorology 18 (1): 41-47. http://agrimetassociation.org/Images/Paper/18/38/1/655.pdf


Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Gastelo, Manuel; Ritchie, Joe; Nelson, Gerald C.; and Asseng, Senthold. 2016. Simulating cultivar variations in potato yields for contrasting environments. Agricultural Systems 145(2016): 51 - 63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.011


Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Vervoort, Joost; Palazzo, Amanda; Islam, Shahnila; Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Havlík, Petr; Peou , Rathana; Sassen, Marieke; Veeger, Marieke; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Arnell, Andrew P.; Stuch, Benjamin; Arslan, Aslihan; and Lipper, Leslie. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia. Environmental Modelling & Software 83(2016): 255 - 270. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.008


Mottaleb, Khondoker A. , Rejesus, Roderick M., Murty, MVR, Mohanty, Samarendu & Li, Tao. 2016. Benefits of the development and dissemination of climate-smart rice: ex ante impact assessment of drought-tolerant rice in South Asia. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9705-0


Raymundo, Rubí; Asseng, Senthold; Prassad, Rishi; Kleinwecther, Ulrich; Concha, Juan; Condori, Bruno; Bowen, Walter; Wolf, Joost; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Dong, Qiaoxue; Zotarelli, Lincoln; Gastelo, Manuel; Alva, Ashok; Travasso, Maria; Quiroz, Roberto; Arora, Vijay; Graham, Wendy; and Porter, Cheryl H. 2017. Performance of the SUBSTOR-potato model across contrasting growing conditions. Field Crops Research 202 (2017): 57–76. First published online 26 April 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.04.012


Springmann, Marco; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; and Scarborough, Peter. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: A modelling study. The Lancet 387(10031), 7 - 13 May 2016: 1937 - 1946. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3


Springmann, Marco; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith D.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; and Scarborough, Peter. 2017. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities. Nature Climate Change 7(1): 69-74. First published online 7 November 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3155


Tesfaye, K., Kai Sonder, Jill Cairns, Cosmos Magorokosho, Amsal Tarekegne, Girma T. Kassie, Fite Getaneh, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Tsedeke Abate, and Olaf Erenstein (2016). Targeting Drought-Tolerant Maize Varieties in Southern Africa: A Geospatial Crop Modeling Approach Using Big Data. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 9 (A): 75-92. http://www.ifama.org/resources/Documents/v19ia/420150114.pdf


Tesfaye, Kindie; Zaidi, P.H.; Gbegbelegbe, Sika; Boeber, Christian; Rahut, Dil Bahadur; Getaneh, Fite; Seetharam, K.; Erenstein, Olaf; and Stirling, Claire. Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Published online 14 September 2016. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1931-6


van Ittersum, Martin K.; van Bussela, Lenny G. J.; Wolf, Joost; Grassini, Patricio; van Wart, Justin; Guilpart, Nicolas; Claessens, Lieven; de Groot, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Yang, Haishun; Boogaard, Hendrik; van Oort, Pepijn A. J.; van Loon, Marloes P.; Saito, Kazuki; Adimo, Ochieng; Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel; Agalij, Alhassane; Bala, Abdullahi; Chikowo, Regis; Kaizzi, Kayuki; Kouressy, Mamoutou; Makoi, Joachim H. J. R.; Ouattara, Korodjouma; Tesfaye, Kindie; and Cassman, Kenneth G. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Available online 12 December 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113


Non ISI Journal Articles

Ojango J.M.K., Wasike C.B., Enahoro D.K. and Okeyo A.M. Dairy production systems and the adoption of genetic and breeding technologies in Tanzania, Kenya, India and Nicaragua. Animal Genetic Resources/Resources génétiques animales/Recursos genéticos animales. Volume 59, December 2016, pp. 81-95. https://doi.org/10.1017/S2078633616000096


Discussion and Working Papers

Beyene, L. M., Sahoo, A., Shiferaw, B. and Gbegbelegbe, S. 2016. Economy-wide impacts of technological change in food staples in Ethiopia: a macro-micro approach. Working Paper 2016 17. Quebec. Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP). https://portal.pep-net.org/documents/download/id/28020 


Cenacchi, Nicola; Lim, Youngah; Sulser, Timothy B.; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Kim, Chang-Gil; and Wiebe, Keith D. 2016. Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050: An integrated assessment. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1586. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/130999


Ghosh, J., Sahoo, A., Shiferaw, B. and Gbegbelegbe, S. 2016. A CGE analysis of the implications of technological change in Indian agriculture. Working Paper 2016 16. Quebec. Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP). https://portal.pep-net.org/documents/download/id/27600


Gonzáles, Carlos; Schiek, Ben; Mwendia, Solomon; Prager, Steven Dean. 2016. Improved forages and milk production in East Africa. A case study in the series: Economic foresight for understanding the role of investments in agriculture for the global food system. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Cali, CO. 54 p. (Publicación CIAT No. 422) http://hdl.handle.net/10568/77557


CIAT. 2016. Ex-ante Assessment of Drought Tolerant Bean Technology. A case study in the series: Economic Foresight for Understanding the Role of Investments in Agriculture for the Global Food System. CIAT Working Paper. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Cali, Colombia. 25 p. http://hdl.handle.net/10568/79471


Orr, A and Mwema, C and Gierend, A and Nedumaran, S. 2016. Sorghum and Millets in Eastern and Southern Africa : Facts, Trends and Outlook. Working Paper. ICRISAT, Patancheru, Telangana, India. http://oar.icrisat.org/9441/ 


Sahoo, A., Shiferaw, B. and Gbegbelegbe, S. 2016. Economy-wide impacts of promising maize and wheat technologies on food security and welfare in Kenya. Working Paper 2016 14. Quebec. Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP). https://portal.pep-net.org/documents/download/id/27560


Policy Briefs

Rosegrant, Mark W.; Perez, Nicostrato; Pradesha, Angga; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2016. The economywide impacts of climate change on Philippine agriculture. Climate Change Policy Note 1. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292451


Thomas, Timothy S.; Pradesha, Angga; and Perez, Nicostrato. 2016. Agricultural growth, climate resilience, and food security in the Philippines: Subnational impacts of selected investment strategies and policies. Climate Change Policy Note 2. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896292468


Contributions to Reports

Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition. 2016. Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century. London, UK. http://glopan.org/sites/default/files/ForesightReport.pdf


OECD (2016), Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264247826-en